WHAT ARE YOUR ODDS WITH SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY?

Trying to place odds on winning a Social Security claim is worse than trying to put odds on winning the lotto.  Each case is different because of several factors:  claimant's age, past work experience, education, medical impairments and the judge who will hear the case.

Change any one of the "components" in a case and the odds change dramatically.  But based on national averages and our experience, here is a rout idea of the averages based on millions of cases filed nationwide:

APPLICATION STAGE (FIRST STAGE):  The odds of being approved at the initial application stage is between 20 and 30 percent.  Yes, 70 to 80 percent will be denied and will require appeals.

RECONSIDERATION STAGE (FIRST APPEAL):  Less than 10 percent of claims are approved at Reconsideration.  However, a few do get approved here and, anyway, this step is required before you can move forward.

HEARING STAGE (SECOND APPEAL):  This is actually the best chance.  Nationwide, about 45 percent of all claims will be approved as a result of the hearing.  The numbers look better at this stage than at any other stage in the process.  

APPEALS COUNCIL (AC) APPEAL (THIRD APPEAL):  At this level, you are not arguing that you are disabled.  You are arguing that the judge made some material mistakes at your hearing and you are asking for a new hearing.  About 85 percent of these claims will not be favorably considered.  Of the ones that are, 
  • 13 percent will be given a new hearing
  • 02 percent will be awarded their benefits by the AC without another hearing
FEDERAL DISTRICT COURT APPEALS is the final appeal.  I don't have good numbers for the award rate here because the numbers vary greatly from district to district.  This is the final attempt and only about 1 out of 100 cases ever make it to federal district court.

As you can easily see, the odds are best at the hearing before an administrative law judge (second appeal).  At this stage, the claimant with his/her attorney may sit down face-to-face with the judge and make their case.  Judges' award rates vary widely from judge to judge; however, the national average award rate has been around 45 percent for several years.


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